AIB Warns 7% Inflation; NTMA Forecasts €250 Billion Debt by 2030s

AIB warns that Irish inflation could accelerate to 7 percent this year if the Strait of Hormuz remains blockaded and oil prices rise. The bank's economic outlook, reported by Eoin Burke-Kennedy, suggests muted Irish economic growth due to geopolitical uncertainty and the unwinding of last year's export front-loading.

Separately, the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA) will inform the Dáil’s Public Accounts Committee (PAC) today that Ireland’s national debt could approach €250 billion by the 2030s. NTMA chief executive Frank O’Connor is expected to state that this debt level carries risk and that the era of low-interest State borrowing is over. This rise in inflation would pressure the Government to assist households with living costs.

Despite exchequer surpluses from corporation tax, the Coalition acknowledges economic challenges. This year’s budget package is set to be €2.4 billion smaller than last year’s, totaling around €7 billion. Tánaiste and Minister for Finance Simon Harris stated the October budget must protect the economy and help working people, focusing on an income tax package, a new savings and investment scheme, and delivering €200 per child per month by the Government's end.

In other news, The Irish Times/TG4-Ipsos B&A poll results for the Dublin Central byelection are due at 7pm. Former Dublin Central candidate Bertie Ahern faced controversy over secretly recorded comments on immigration, though he later insisted he had «no problem» with people from «the Congo» or Africa. Ahern predicted the byelection would be a battle between Sinn Féin and the Social Democrats.