Europe will not be able to massively return Ukrainian men: what is known until 2027

The mass return of Ukrainian men of conscription age from European Union countries is currently impossible. Despite active political statements and discussions in Europe, there are currently no legal mechanisms for “deportation for mobilization.”

Temporary protection for citizens of Ukraine in the EU has been extended until March 4, 2027, and applies, among others, to men of conscription age. At the EU level, there is no separate legal regime that would allow depriving men of protection solely on the basis of age or gender.

It is important to note that the mass return of men from the EU is not currently foreseen. Even if Ukraine initiates criminal proceedings for illegal departure, this does not entail automatic extradition, as in EU countries such cases are considered in court with observance of all legal procedures. After 2027, the cancellation of temporary protection will not mean automatic deportation; other ways of legalizing stay are possible, such as obtaining a residence permit, asylum, new statuses, or undergoing individual procedures. Experts consider it more likely not forced return, but increased pressure through consular restrictions, tightening of residence rules, and document requirements.

The main question is what mechanisms Europe will develop after the end of the current protection regime in 2027. For now, Brussels is discussing not mass return, but transitional mechanisms and voluntary return. Thus, as of today, the scenario in which “Europe will start sending men back to war” does not seem realistic, which is due to EU law, the European Convention on Human Rights, and decisions of national courts.