US Expended Up to 61% of Patriot Missiles in 39-Day Iran War, Resupply Years Away

A new report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) indicates the US may have used 45% to 61% of its Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (PAC-3 MSE) arsenal during 39 days of the war in Iran. This amounts to 1,060 to 1,430 out of 2,330 PAC-3 MSEs. Additionally, 190-290 out of 360 THAAD munitions were expended, along with significant portions of naval Standard Missile 3 and 6 stockpiles.

Resupplying these inventories is projected to take years. Historically, manufacturing lead times for initial deliveries have been 24-36 months, with full production taking over four years. The US Department of Defense recently signed a framework with Lockheed Martin to increase PAC-3 MSE production to 2,000 units annually over 6-7 years, but this agreement is unfunded and offers no short-term solution. Diminished US inventories will impact supplies to allies like Ukraine, which heavily relies on Patriots against Russian ballistic missile strikes.

Ukraine is exploring alternatives, including the French-Italian SAMP/T system, with President Zelenskyy signing a security pact to acquire more. These systems use Aster-30 missiles, which are cheaper than PAC-3 MSEs, but their production rate is low (80-100 annually, aiming for 300 by 2028). Ukraine also received a $3.7 billion deal for older PAC-2 GEM missiles from Raytheon, but their delivery timeline is uncertain, with Germany expecting its first 1,000 PAC-2 GEM-Ts by 2028.

President Zelenskyy has challenged Ukrainian companies to develop domestic anti-ballistic capabilities within a year to reduce dependence. While some express optimism, military analysts warn that creating such systems is extremely difficult, costly (billions to develop, millions per missile), and requires advanced radar and highly precise, maneuverable missiles capable of intercepting threats at kilometers per second.