Irish Home Completions to Rise 11% to 40,000 in 2024; Starts Slow Due to Middle East War

Goodbody Stockbrokers forecasts Irish home completions will increase by 11 percent to 40,000 in 2024, up from 36,000 last year. However, housing starts have slowed following the war in the Middle East, and planning permissions need to accelerate to maintain momentum, citing issues with land availability, planning, and viability.

Data from the Central Statistics Office shows a 1 percent fall in total planning permissions granted in Q1, down to 8,092 units. Dublin experienced a 34 percent annual decline in approved homes to 1,452 units, with apartment approvals down 31.6 percent to 1,064 and house approvals down 39.7 percent to 388. Strategic housing developments also saw a 43.8 percent annual decline in approved units.

Goodbody chief economist Dermot O’Leary noted that while a significant stock of units has planning permission, new permissions are «flatlining.» He emphasized that apartments are crucial for growth in Dublin's new supply, requiring increased activation and more planning permissions, alongside better land availability and faster utility connections. O’Leary attributed slower housing starts over the past three months to the Middle East war and energy price spikes.

Government support remains vital, contributing an estimated 35 percent to new housing supply in 2025. House price growth is steady at about 7 percent, with new home price inflation at 6 percent. Mortgage approvals have been consistent, with the market projected at €15.6 billion for 2026. Easing rent controls, changing standards, and lower VAT have also marginally aided new rental supply.