Searching for «Safe Havens» in an Era of Global Turbulence: Georgia and Poland – False Sanctuaries

Today, the world is experiencing a unique period of «global turbulence,» where the AI revolution, the decline of Western civilization, and the global confrontation between the US and China are occurring simultaneously. This creates a dangerous and unpredictable configuration, characterized by wars, technological leaps, institutional degradation, increased state repressiveness, overheated real estate markets, and climate shifts.

In these conditions, many people are seeking «safe havens» – places to preserve health, freedom, assets, and the ability to think. However, most evaluate them based on naive criteria: absence of war, low cost, beauty, belonging to Europe/the West, or the presence of acquaintances. These criteria are suitable for a vacation but not for life in an era of turbulence, leading to the selection of false sanctuaries that later become traps.

Examples of such false havens include Georgia and Poland. Georgia, despite its apparent appeal (warmth, affordability, visa-free travel, many relocators), has serious drawbacks: geopolitical pressure from Russia, weak legal institutions, a high rate of degradation, and low long-term predictability. This makes it a temporary refuge, not a reliable haven.

Poland, although an EU member with developed infrastructure, also has strategic disadvantages: it is a frontline for a potential Russian invasion, undergoing militarization and internal political turbulence. Furthermore, there is pressure on the Ukrainian diaspora and high repressive potential in crisis scenarios. Poland may be a decent place to live today, but as a «safe haven» in the long term, it is an illusion.

A true «safe haven» is not a metaphor but rather an engineering task: a place capable of withstanding the pressure of global turbulence. The methodology for evaluating such places includes 15 criteria, from geopolitics to climate and from the business environment to personal safety. For example, the UAE is strong in economic opportunities but weak in cultural-political specifics and climate. Portugal is comfortable but dependent on EU bureaucracy. Thailand is affordable but politically and militarily unstable, and offers weak legal protection for foreigners. It is crucial that a place remains reliable even when several parameters deteriorate. Balanced «safe havens» exist, but they are very few. The task is to learn how to evaluate them to avoid losing freedom, resources, and time.