UN: 5.16 Million Ukrainian Refugees to Remain in Europe by 2029 if War Continues
By 2029, 5.16 million Ukrainian refugees will remain in Europe if the war persists, according to a UN study. Depopulation divides Ukrainians into those dependent on the country and those who can thrive abroad. To encourage returns, Ukraine must create appealing conditions rather than ignoring citizens' interests.
According to a study by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, 5.16 million Ukrainian refugees, 99% of the current number, will remain in Europe by the end of 2029 if active hostilities in Ukraine continue. In the event of a compromise peace, 56% of refugees will not return, and in case of Ukraine's victory, this figure could drop to 32%.
Depopulation in Ukraine is a pressing issue, dividing citizens into those who cannot do without Ukraine (officials, security forces, humanitarian intelligentsia, elderly) and those who can successfully thrive abroad (IT specialists, laborers, youth). Those tied to Ukraine need those who can do without it (taxpayers, workers, youth), but the reverse dependency is not observed.
To curb depopulation, it is crucial to fight for people who can choose between Ukraine and abroad, offering them rational arguments and attractive conditions. However, the current state policy is shaped by those tied to Ukraine, ignoring the interests of those who can live without it. This leads to inefficiency, as Ukraine already lacks people.
There is a possibility that Ukrainians will return if opportunities for self-realization abroad sharply decrease. The historical example of Israel in the 1940s-1960s shows how antisemitic actions contributed to repatriation. Currently, it is advantageous for Ukraine if its citizens abroad face hardship, which might encourage them to return, even if the homeland cannot provide care.