Trump Tariffs May Endure Beyond 2029, Says US Trade Expert Rohit Kumar

Irish exporters should not expect Donald Trump’s tariff policies to be unwound when he leaves office in 2029, according to Rohit Kumar, PwC US tax policy services leader and former domestic policy director for Mitch McConnell.

Kumar noted that the US imposes 15 per cent tariffs on most EU goods, a deal struck last July. Irish goods exports to the US fell by 82 per cent in March, from €25.5 billion last year to €4.5 billion this year, due to tariff-linked volatility and firms stockpiling products to avoid earlier tariffs. While big pharma, which dominates Ireland’s merchandise trade, has largely escaped tariffs, Trump recently threatened 100 per cent tariffs on pharma companies exporting to the US if they renege on drug price reduction deals.

Kumar believes the current level of tariffs will likely persist, regardless of the next president, citing President Biden’s retention and addition of tariffs inherited from Trump’s first administration. This reflects a broader shift in US political sentiment. He also highlighted that Trump’s tax legislation has made the US significantly more attractive for investment, halting the exodus of US-headquartered companies. The situation for Ireland could worsen if Republicans retain Congress after November’s midterm elections, potentially leading to further tax or economic policy changes in 2027 that could impact Irish interests.