Right-Wing Parties Gain Significant Support in Irish Byelections, Eye Future Seats

Last weekend's byelections in Ireland saw significant increases in support for right and far-right parties and candidates, suggesting the emergence of a new electoral force to the right of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, a phenomenon not seen perhaps since the Progressive Democrats in the mid-1980s. This emerging force is expected to remain strong and grow.

In Galway West, Noel Thomas of Independent Ireland, a former Fianna Fáil councillor, nearly secured a seat. He doubled his vote percentage from the 2024 general election, exceeding 10,000 votes. Thomas, known for his tough stance on migration, declared «the inn is full» in 2023 regarding asylum seekers and was prominent in recent fuel protests. While migration was not the top issue for Galway voters, who prioritized the cost of living, the fuel protests symbolized frustration with the Government.

In Dublin Central, right-wing populists Malachy Steenson and Gerry Hutch collectively garnered over 20% of the vote. Steenson, an overtly anti-migration campaigner, transferred over 50% of his votes to Hutch upon elimination. Anti-migration sentiment is stronger in Dublin than Galway, though still a minority concern. Political scientist Eoin O’Malley anticipates migration will remain a live political issue, enabling explicitly anti-immigrant candidates to win seats in both urban and rural Ireland.

However, while a tough stance on migration attracts votes, it can hinder transfers from more centrist or centre-left candidates. Hutch struggled to gain transfers in Dublin Central, a factor that also prevented him from winning a seat in the 2024 general election. Thomas in Galway fared better with transfers, possibly due to being closer to the political mainstream, but ultimately lost out to Fine Gael's Sean Kyne in the final vote distribution.