UN Warns Global Temperatures to Remain Near Record Highs Through 2030

The United Nations warns that global average temperatures will likely remain at or near record levels for the next five years, from 2026 to 2030. The 11 hottest years on record have all occurred since 2015, and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts this trend will continue, with a new hottest-ever year likely before 2031.

There is a 75% chance that the 2026-2030 five-year mean temperature will surpass the 1.5°C threshold above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average, a key target of the 2015 Paris climate accords. The WMO also states an 86% chance that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest on record. This outlook coincides with Western Europe experiencing a heat dome, breaking May temperature records in Ireland, France, and the UK.

An El Niño event predicted for late 2026 increases the likelihood of 2027 being a record-breaking year, according to Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO's Global Annual-to-Decadal Update. The last El Niño contributed to 2023 being the second-hottest and 2024 the all-time high at approximately 1.55°C above the pre-industrial average. Arctic temperatures during the next five northern hemisphere winters (November-March) are predicted to be 2.8°C above the 1991-2020 average, more than triple the global anomaly for the same period.