Bank of Ireland Forecasts 4% House Price Rise in 2026, New Builds Drive Growth
Bank of Ireland predicts a 4% increase in house prices for 2026, down from 7% last year. New-build properties are driving market growth, with transactions up 30%, while existing home sales declined. The homebuilding sector is exceeding expectations, with 40,000 completions projected for 2026, but price pressures are expected to persist.
Bank of Ireland (BOI) forecasts a 4% rise in house prices this year, moderating from 7% inflation in 2025. Properties sold at a 6.7% premium above asking prices in April and May, indicating strong buyer competition.
MyHome asking prices increased by 1% in Q1 2026 to a median of €385,000, a 4.7% year-on-year rise. BOI Chief Economist Conall McCoille noted that sales 6-7% above asking suggest further price increases, despite borrowers reaching affordability limits and moderate wage growth.
Market activity expanded, with residential transactions up 6.6% year-on-year in Q1, and a 3% increase projected for Q2. This growth is primarily driven by new-build properties, which saw a 30% surge in transactions. Existing home sales declined for the fourth consecutive year, reflecting homeowners' reluctance to move due to tight supply.
Ireland's homebuilding sector is outperforming expectations. Housing completions reached 38,191 in the year to Q1 2026, with 7,856 units delivered in Q1 alone. BOI projects 40,000 completions in 2026, exceeding earlier forecasts of 37,500. Despite scaling up new supply, tight second-hand market conditions and strong first-time buyer demand are expected to maintain price pressures.