Ireland to Achieve Only Half of 2030 Emissions Target, EPA Forecasts

Ireland is projected to achieve only 25 per cent of its committed greenhouse gas emissions reduction by 2030, according to the latest Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) forecast. This is approximately half of the legally required 51 per cent drop. If current climate policies persist without further action, the reduction could be as low as 13 per cent.

EPA Director General Eimear Cotter noted that while there was a slight improvement from last year's 9-23 per cent forecast, nearly all sectors remain off-track. She emphasized the need for a renewed focus on delivering actions to meet Ireland’s climate targets, acknowledging the significant challenge given the short timeframe to 2030.

Progress is uneven across sectors. Transport emissions, requiring a 50 per cent reduction, are forecast to drop by 28 per cent at best. Electricity generation, aiming for a 75 per cent reduction, is projected to achieve 61 per cent due to slower renewable energy roll-out. Agriculture, the largest emitting sector at 37 per cent of national emissions, faces high uncertainty with reductions ranging from 4 per cent to 19 per cent. Emissions from land are expected to increase by 4 per cent to 72 per cent due to aging forests and degraded peatlands.

Minister for Climate, Energy and the Environment Darragh O’Brien welcomed the forecast, highlighting positive elements like emissions reduction amidst economic and population growth. He expressed optimism that the electricity sector would exceed EPA projections and committed to introducing more accessible grants for commercial retrofits, aiming for targets by the early 2030s despite acknowledging the 2030 target would not be met.