Bank of Ireland Maintains 4% Irish Property Price Forecast for 2026 Despite Soft Start

Bank of Ireland is maintaining its forecast for a 4 per cent increase in Irish residential property prices in 2026, despite a soft start to the year. The lender's economics unit noted that while early 2026 price data was soft, a seasonal pickup is expected over the summer. This follows a 7 per cent rise in 2025.

Central Statistics Office data showed the residential property price index rose 0.4 per cent in January, then slipped 0.3 per cent in February, and was flat in March. Group chief economist Conal Mac Coille stated that underlying data, including a 1 per cent rise in MyHome asking prices in Q1 and properties selling 6-7 per cent above asking in Q2, suggest prices will increase in coming months. However, Mac Coille expects a more sedate increase due to stretched affordability.

Transaction volumes are rising, driven almost entirely by new-builds. Residential transactions increased 6.6 per cent year-on-year in Q1, largely due to a 30 per cent surge in new-build transactions, while existing home sales declined. This reflects a structural challenge where existing homeowners are reluctant to move, making the market heavily reliant on new construction.

Homebuilding continues to exceed expectations, with completions reaching 38,191 in the 12 months to March. Double-digit growth was seen across apartments, housing estates, and self-builds. Bank of Ireland projects completions could reach 40,000 units in 2026, surpassing earlier projections of 37,500.