Ireland to Miss 2030 Emissions Target by Half, EPA Warns

Ireland is projected to achieve only half of its targeted greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2030, according to new Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) projections. The Climate Action Plan aims for a 50% reduction from 2018 levels by 2030, but current projections indicate only a 25% reduction with additional planned measures, or just 13% with existing measures alone.

While Ireland may meet its first carbon budget (2021-2025), nearly all sectors are set to exceed their ceilings for the second budget (2026-2030). Transport and industry are furthest from their 2030 targets. Agriculture is projected to reduce emissions by 4% to 19%, falling short of its 25% target. Transport emissions may decrease by up to 28% (below the 50% target), and residential emissions by up to 18% (below the 40% target). Industry emissions are projected to reduce by 12% against a 35% target.

The electricity sector is on track for a 55-61% reduction, but this is still below its 75% target, partly due to delayed renewable energy projects. The land use sector, including forestry, is projected to see a massive increase in emissions (72% with existing measures) without significant additional policies like increased afforestation. This sector could contribute 9.2% of Ireland’s total emissions by 2030.

Ireland is also expected to miss its EU Effort Sharing Regulation target of a 42% reduction from 2005 levels, achieving only a maximum 23% reduction. EPA Director General Eimear Cotter emphasized the “significant challenge” and the critical need to accelerate renewable energy delivery and maintain ambition across all sectors to meet 2030 targets.