Hormuz Closure Threatens European Jet Fuel: IEA Warns, Ryanair Risks 25% by May
The Strait of Hormuz closure due to the US-Israeli conflict with Iran has halted Gulf jet fuel exports, potentially causing European shortages within six weeks, according to the IEA. Ryanair, whose CEO fears up to 25% of supplies could be jeopardized, says deliveries are guaranteed until mid-May. Travel experts advise booking flights immediately and upgrading insurance due to potential disruptions.
The US-Israeli war on Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, impacting European jet fuel supplies, which rely on Gulf exports that ceased in late February. The International Energy Agency warned of potential jet fuel shortages in Europe within six weeks, echoing Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary's concern that up to 25% of the airline's supplies could be jeopardized. Ryanair stated jet fuel suppliers are guaranteeing deliveries into mid-May, but risks to supplies at some airports could not be ruled out if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed into May and June.
Travel advisor Eoghan Corry notes jet fuel supplies vary across Europe, with smaller, regional airports in southern Europe most exposed. Ireland is reasonably placed regarding stocks, but lacks refining capacity. Corry believes Ryanair and Aer Lingus's buying power would benefit Ireland. He anticipates airlines will trim "fat routes" with multiple daily flights if shortages loom, canceling flights more than two weeks in advance to avoid compensation. Corry expects a "late booker" premium, advising immediate booking for those without flights or accommodation. He also recommends upgrading insurance policies to cover flight disruption and strike action.
Clare Dunne of the Irish Travel Agents Association says rerouting flights to Asia and Australia due to the conflict is costing more. Interest in eastern destinations has dropped since early March, while western Europe remains strong, with Spain and Portugal benefiting. The "booking window" has narrowed. Paul Hackett of ClickandGo.com notes softening bookings to Turkey and Cyprus, with Greece suffering to a lesser extent, and a general softening in demand for the United States. He attributes this to consumer confidence issues related to the conflict, cost of living, fuel costs, and protests.