Ireland: 60% of Buildings to Rely on Fossil Fuels for Heat by 2050
The SEAI reports that 60% of Irish buildings will still use fossil fuels for heat by 2050 under current policies, risking emissions targets and price volatility. Addressing this could cost €206 billion by 2055, while inaction would cost €217 billion. The report suggests pathways including heat pumps and district heating to cut emissions by 90%.
More than half of Irish homes and businesses, specifically 60%, will still depend on fossil fuels for heat in 2050 under current policies, according to the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI). This rate of switching to heat pumps and green heating systems means Ireland will remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels, breaching greenhouse gas emissions targets and incurring potential penalties.
Heating constitutes over one-third of Ireland’s energy use and about a quarter of national greenhouse gas emissions, with 90% currently supplied by fossil fuels, 80% of which are imported. SEAI chief executive William Walsh noted this exposes Ireland to international price fluctuations. The cost of addressing these issues from 2025-2055 is estimated at €206 billion, compared to €217 billion if current policies continue.
The SEAI report proposes that electricity and heat pumps could meet 72% of demand by 2055, cutting emissions by 90%. This requires clear timelines for phasing out new fossil fuel boilers, significant upfront customer support via grants and tax incentives, and electricity tariff reform. District heating systems, especially using geothermal or industrial waste heat, are also highlighted as a cheaper alternative to individual heat pumps. Minister for Energy Darragh O’Brien acknowledged the need for more progress in decarbonizing the built environment.