EU Warned: Russia, China May Exploit Iran War Fallout, Global Shortages

EU ministers have been warned that Russia and China may exploit the fallout from the Iran war to increase their influence over developing countries struggling with energy and food shortages. An internal EU diplomatic service paper, seen by The Irish Times, stated that the global economic squeeze from the Strait of Hormuz blockade could have «significant geopolitical implications» for Europe.

The paper highlighted that Gulf states' role in fertiliser trade means global food security could be heavily affected, leading to «significant food shortages and price increases» in the developing world before year-end. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane for a fifth of global oil and gas, began in retaliation for US and Israeli airstrikes in late February, causing global energy prices to rise.

Ministers discussed warnings that Russia is leveraging oil and gas sales for geopolitical influence, while China also seeks to increase its leverage. EU officials noted that both countries are exploiting global shortages for geopolitically motivated government-to-government fertiliser and food trade deals, similar to the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Concerns exist within the European Commission that Gulf states might re-evaluate ties with Washington due to the war, especially after Iran launched rockets at US allies Qatar and UAE. Pressure on global food supplies is expected to extend beyond this year, exacerbated by rising fertiliser prices affecting Africa and Asia, and the anticipated El Nino weather pattern, potentially causing significant food shortages and price increases by late 2026.