Leaked EU Assessment: Russia-Ukraine War Spillover Among Rising Terrorism Risks
A leaked EU assessment identifies Islamist and jihadist terrorism as the main threat to the EU, with Iran and Afghanistan also posing risks. It warns of long-term consequences from Russia's war in Ukraine, including arms flow and ex-combatants entering the bloc. A Schengen entry-ban for Russian ex-soldiers is expected in June.
A leaked EU assessment, reported by RFE/RL, rates the overall terrorism threat to the European Union as high, with Islamist and jihadist terrorism being the main concern. The document, prepared by the Council of the EU, primarily covers 2025 trends and also highlights Iran and Afghanistan as significant threats.
The report warns that Iran's escalation could activate proxy networks or dormant cells in Europe, and identifies Afghanistan's Islamic State Khorasan Province as a primary external threat. It also notes recruiters targeting children as young as 12 on platforms like Telegram and TikTok.
While the immediate impact of Russia's war on Ukraine on the terrorist threat in Europe has been limited, the assessment warns of medium to long-term consequences from the flow of small arms and explosives out of the war zone. Brussels is also concerned about Russian ex-combatants, including an estimated 180,000 prisoners drawn into the war, entering the bloc and engaging in crime or violence. A Schengen entry-ban proposal for these former soldiers is anticipated in June.
Ukraine and Estonia have already called for the EU to blacklist Russians who fought against Ukraine, with Estonia having tested a national ban before advocating for a bloc-wide mechanism.