UN: 56% of Ukrainian Refugees to Remain in Europe Until 2029 Under «Fragile Peace» Scenario

According to a study by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), under a scenario of a «fragile peace with concessions» in the Russian-Ukrainian war this year, over half of the current number of Ukrainian refugees will remain in Europe until the end of 2029.

This scenario assumes Russia retains de facto control over occupied territories, investment levels in Ukrainian government-controlled territories remain medium or high, and temporary protection for Ukrainian refugees in the EU ceases in March 2027. In this case, 2.9 million Ukrainian refugees (56% of their current number) are projected to remain in Europe at least until 2029.

Under a second scenario, «status quo» (continued Russian aggression), 5.16 million Ukrainian refugees (99% of their current number) would be in Europe by the end of 2029. Under a third scenario, Ukraine's victory and return of occupied territories, the number of refugees could decrease to 32%. UNHCR clarified that these scenarios are not predictive but demonstrate how behavior might change in response to various probable future events.

The European Commission is discussing with EU member states options for a unified decision regarding the status of Ukrainians residing in the EU after March 2027, including both complete abolition and extension of temporary protection. The Temporary Protection Directive, enacted in March 2022, granted millions of Ukrainians access to rights in the EU and is currently valid until March 4, 2027.